Everyone wants cherry blossom, and for good reason. But sakura is a moving target: the front sweeps north over about six weeks, and any given city gets roughly ten days of full bloom. Forecasts firm up only a few weeks ahead, by which point flights and hotels for that window have long been sold.
Our approach is to fix departures in the last week of March and the first week of April, which historically catches Tokyo or Kyoto at or near peak. We tell travellers plainly that the blossom cannot be guaranteed, anyone who promises otherwise is guessing.
Autumn is the underrated alternative. Early to mid November brings the maples into colour, the weather is drier and more settled than spring, and both airfares and hotel rates are noticeably lower. The temples look every bit as good in red as in pink.
The times to avoid are Golden Week in early May, Obon in mid August and the New Year period. Domestic travel peaks, the shinkansen fills and prices climb sharply.
